amillionmonkeys

03:35 pm

This blog is long since retired, but on blogger it is still very much alive:

http://amillionmonkeys.blogspot.com/

09:26 am

Because I recently learned that this web site is being monitored by the CIA, I have decided to jump ship from livejournal and go back over to blogger, which as you know CIA spooks cannot access.

AMillionMonkeys is dead, long live AMillionMonkeys:

http://amillionmonkeys.blogspot.com/

10:15 am

Every day is like jeans day.

03:38 pm

Pretty excited about TPM Cafe, a new group blog & discussion group just opened by Josh Marshall, whose blog Talking Points Memo is one of the best in existence. The new site is impressive in scope and profile, and this week includes guest-blogging by John Edwards.

03:59 pm

Mmmm, Guinness popsicle...

10:25 am - Harry Reid: One Tough Mormon

Now that's what I'm talking about! In the same week that a "historic bipartisan compromise" is reached over filibustering judges, Dem leader Harry Reid has the brass balls to turn around and immediately filibuster Frist on the Bolton vote. (Bad week for Bill Frist!)

Perhaps you already believe that the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations should not be someone who believe that "there is no United Nations" and that the institution has zero authority. The specific justification for this filibuster, if you're interested, is that the White House has stonewalled Congress's requests for some NSA documents (long story but they're important) to aid their decision whether to confirm Bolton or not. The Congress is constitutionally enabled to request these documents, the administration is breaking the law by not providing them, yet Frist earlier this week said he would "absolutely" force a vote this week. Well, Democrats are enabled by the Constitution to block that vote via the filibuster, and there is no reason beyond timid, weak-kneed defeatism not to. Reid showed political bravery, but also a delightful killer instinct. This is smart, ruthless politics of the sort that we rank-and-file Dems are frankly not accustomed to seeing. Viva Reid!

02:48 pm

Daily music web site Pitchforkmedia.com is only a month late in reviewing Mike Jones. (I guess because their reviews of DDM's "Snow on the TV EP" or Goldie Lookin' Chain's "Straight Outta Newport" just couldn't wait.) But! The review, by the overqualified Julianne Shepherd, is well-written, funny and worth reading.

12:39 pm

The editors of The New Republic (and others) think they have found the loophole that makes the judges/filibusters compromise a bad deal for Democrats:

Moreover, when the filibuster fight comes to a head again--as it will--the Democrats' task will be made all the more difficult not only by the need to demonstrate "extraordinary circumstances," but by the implication that the three Bush nominees the deal effectively confirmed, whom the liberal establishment treated as something close to worst-case picks, did not constitute "extraordinary circumstances." ... What happens should Bush choose one of these three to fill the next Supreme Court vacancy?

I know the answer!  Pick me!  The answer is, should Bush choose Priscilla Owen or William Pryor for the Supreme Court, Democrats should react with outrage, exclaiming that they are shocked (shocked!) that the administration has so blatantly violated the terms of the agreement that was heroically struck by a group of 14 moderates back in May, to nominate such outrageous, out-of-the-mainstream choices that don't serve American interests,  and so on.  This filibuster battle was a huge deal in Washington, but not that big of a deal to the rest of the country, so the Supreme Court nomination will be the first time many Americans ever hear of the matter--both the political profile and stakes in the battle will have changed dramatically.  So Democrats simply treat it as the first time they've ever encountered these judges, immediately and unrelentingly shouting about that they do indeed constitute extraordinary circumstances, do indeed justify filibustering, etc. etc.  In other words, who cares about the perceived terms of the stupid agreement?  The whole beauty of it is that the agreement left us with plenty of wiggle-room.  When Republicans counter that the compromise has already allowed these judges onto the Circuit Courts, Dems should say, "We are shocked--shocked!--that the administration has so blatantly violated the terms of the agreement that was heroically struck by 14 moderates back in May. [etc.]"  And so on ad infinitum.

See how that works?

03:58 pm

This should be good!

02:46 pm

We know that in politics appearance is everything (optics, as they say), and we know that short-term wins are the only kind there are (in the long term, politics moves on its own schedule). So as I see it it's fairly simple: in the senators' compromise on judges/filibusters, Minority Leader Harry Reid looks like the winner, therefore he is the winner; therefore, cool, we won.

I think this post by Geoffrey R. Stone does the best job of running down the political wins and losses involved. (Democrats 16, Republicans 13, by his scorecard, and in this case it's not exactly a zero-sum game.) I certainly agree with Stone that a.) Scalia will be nominated for Chief Justice, and b.) this is no big deal, and especially c.) the real battle will come when Bush makes his first Supreme Court appointment.

When that happens, Dems will still have the ability to filibuster a sufficiently outrageous nominee. Considering that the administration's entire policy on social conservatives is to placate them with justices (see below!), and given the appearance of a loss by the hard right in this case, Bush will have a hard time nominating anyone short of James Dobson himself. Further still, consider the enormous and unexpected pain-in-the-ass the Bolton nomination became for the White House because of pressure from Dems and moderate Republicans (and ambassador to the UN is a relatively unimportant post compared to Supreme Court Justice), and you begin to have an appreciation for the medium-term implications of this political victory, and for the reasons this outcome may be even more favorable to Democrats than it now appears.